Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152019 190921 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.10    110.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.6  34.4  43.1  42.1  42.0  45.4  53.0  60.4  N  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  40.0  37.0  36.0  28.0  21.0  17.0  20.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0   7.0   7.0   0.0   0.0  27.0  44.0  39.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  43.0  39.0  37.0  37.0  35.0  33.0  35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  28.6  34.4  43.1  42.1  42.0  45.4  53.0  60.4  N  U VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        1.6%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        3.9%        2.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        1.4%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        1.4%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        0.7%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%