Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152019 190921 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.20    111.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.7  43.2  48.6  51.4  59.7  72.3  72.3  72.3  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  34.0  21.0  16.0  26.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  93.5  93.5  93.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0 -11.0   4.0  10.0  25.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  38.0  36.0  33.0  32.0  30.0  30.0  30.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  35.7  43.2  48.6  51.4  59.7  72.3  72.3  72.3  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%