Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162019 190928 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60     99.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.8  35.5  30.9  27.9  31.1  27.4  26.5  24.8  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  22.0  22.0  23.0  27.0  31.0  23.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   138.0 107.0  82.0  98.0  85.0  74.0  39.0  44.0 VF  F  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  78.0  80.0  78.0  75.0  70.0  66.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  30.8  35.5  30.9  27.9  31.1  27.4  26.5  24.8  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        1.3%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        6.7%       14.6%       10.7%
 30kt / 24h        2.0%        5.0%        3.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        5.0%        3.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        2.0%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        3.0%       14.6%        8.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        4.3%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h        4.0%        7.8%        5.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        2.2%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        7.4%       10.6%        9.0%