Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162019 190929 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    100.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     64.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.7  33.6  31.6  31.5  31.0  27.3  22.4  20.7  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  21.0  21.0  27.0  31.0  25.0  19.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   109.0 141.0 153.0  95.0  51.0  34.0  28.0  24.0  F VF VF  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  82.0  81.0  77.0  75.0  71.0  66.0  58.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  33.7  33.6  31.6  31.5  31.0  27.3  22.4  20.7  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        1.8%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        9.2%       18.0%       13.6%
 30kt / 24h        2.9%        7.3%        5.1%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%        7.3%        4.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        2.9%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        3.7%       15.5%        9.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.8%        4.7%        2.8%
 55kt / 48h        4.9%        9.3%        7.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        2.3%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        4.2%       10.0%        7.1%