Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162019 190929 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40    101.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.1  24.9  24.9  23.2  23.3  22.1  20.7  18.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  18.0  24.0  27.0  25.0  23.0  22.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   149.0 147.0  91.0  58.0  32.0  45.0  32.0  14.0 VF VF  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  80.0  75.0  72.0  67.0  64.0  58.0  52.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  26.1  24.9  24.9  23.2  23.3  22.1  20.7  18.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        1.8%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        9.0%       18.4%       13.7%
 30kt / 24h        4.1%        7.1%        5.6%
 35kt / 24h        2.8%        7.1%        5.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        3.4%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        7.6%       17.3%       12.5%
 55kt / 36h        2.7%        5.8%        4.2%
 55kt / 48h        8.8%       11.6%       10.2%
 70kt / 48h        2.4%        3.0%        2.7%
 65kt / 72h        9.0%       10.7%        9.9%