Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162019 190929 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70    103.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.3  25.8  23.4  21.9  23.7  21.8  19.6  21.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  25.0  27.0  25.0  24.0  27.0  30.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   119.0  67.0  62.0  42.0  70.0  38.0   4.0   7.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  74.0  68.0  62.0  57.0  53.0  50.0  44.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.3  25.8  23.4  21.9  23.7  21.8  19.6  21.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        3.9%       13.6%        8.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        4.9%        2.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        4.9%        2.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        2.3%       13.2%        7.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        3.9%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h        6.3%       10.6%        8.4%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        2.4%        1.7%
 65kt / 72h       12.9%        9.8%       11.3%