Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162019 190930 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90    104.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    158.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.9  23.5  23.1  21.0  20.2  19.2  22.6  24.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  26.0  24.0  28.0  29.0  31.0  31.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    74.0  72.0  63.0  52.0  37.0   3.0   0.0  18.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  68.0  62.0  58.0  54.0  50.0  46.0  44.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.9  23.5  23.1  21.0  20.2  19.2  22.6  24.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        7.8%        4.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        2.2%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        2.2%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        8.5%        4.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        2.2%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        4.1%        7.1%        5.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        1.5%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        9.5%        5.7%        7.6%