Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162019 190930 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00    105.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     72.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    157.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  21.6  22.2  22.1  24.4  26.3  29.0  27.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  21.0  27.0  29.0  31.0  31.0  32.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    90.0  65.0  65.0  35.0  15.0  19.0  29.0  25.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  59.0  56.0  52.0  48.0  43.0  42.0  41.0  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.7  21.6  22.2  22.1  24.4  26.3  29.0  27.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        4.0%       16.4%       10.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        6.3%        3.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        6.3%        3.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.9%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        1.6%       16.8%        9.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        5.6%        3.0%
 55kt / 48h        5.8%        9.9%        7.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        2.8%        1.8%
 65kt / 72h        8.6%        6.4%        7.5%