Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162019 190930 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.20    106.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     72.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  22.5  24.0  26.3  30.1  34.5  33.9  31.3  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  27.0  31.0  27.0  27.0  27.0  25.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    89.0  56.0  30.0  22.0  15.0  23.0  30.0  13.0  F  N  N  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  58.0  52.0  47.0  42.0  39.0  38.0  37.0  N  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.6  22.5  24.0  26.3  30.1  34.5  33.9  31.3  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        4.5%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h       12.3%       30.8%       21.5%
 30kt / 24h        4.6%       16.3%       10.5%
 35kt / 24h        3.8%       16.3%       10.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        5.5%        3.1%
 45kt / 36h        3.9%       26.5%       15.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.5%       11.2%        6.4%
 55kt / 48h        4.3%       10.3%        7.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        3.8%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        3.1%        4.4%        3.8%