Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162019 190930 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.40    106.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.0  22.2  26.2  30.6  32.7  33.8  35.0  36.7  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  29.0  26.0  25.0  26.0  22.0  18.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  41.0  28.0  20.0  15.0  25.0  22.0  11.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  54.0  50.0  44.0  42.0  39.0  37.0  35.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.0  22.2  26.2  30.6  32.7  33.8  35.0  36.7  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.5%       13.3%       13.4%
 25kt / 24h       25.5%       42.9%       34.2%
 30kt / 24h       15.8%       28.7%       22.3%
 35kt / 24h       15.6%       28.7%       22.2%
 40kt / 24h        7.0%       13.1%       10.1%
 45kt / 36h       10.4%       32.7%       21.6%
 55kt / 36h        5.4%       16.3%       10.8%
 55kt / 48h        2.9%        9.6%        6.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        3.8%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        2.8%        1.9%