Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162019 191001 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.00    108.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     61.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  26.7  30.3  37.5  44.0  42.6  45.3  48.6  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  26.0  27.0  23.0  18.0  16.0  16.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  41.0  17.0  16.0  19.0  18.0   4.0  16.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  44.0  38.0  37.0  35.0  32.0  28.0  28.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.3  26.7  30.3  37.5  44.0  42.6  45.3  48.6  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.1%        5.5%        4.8%
 25kt / 24h        9.0%       21.5%       15.2%
 30kt / 24h        4.2%       11.0%        7.6%
 35kt / 24h        3.5%       11.0%        7.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        4.0%        2.5%
 45kt / 36h        1.4%        9.4%        5.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        2.8%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        2.5%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%