Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162019 191001 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.20    109.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.7  35.0  42.4  45.8  45.9  45.4  45.4  45.4  N  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  23.0  17.0  16.0  16.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  25.0  11.0  16.0  21.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  37.0  36.0  34.0  32.0  30.0  30.0  30.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  27.7  35.0  42.4  45.8  45.9  45.4  45.4  45.4  N  U VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%