Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172019 191016 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40     92.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.3  34.8  33.3  28.8  21.8  14.8  13.4  13.8  U  U  U  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  20.0  24.0  20.0  15.0  13.0   5.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   117.0 123.0 171.0 157.0 116.0 111.0  77.0  43.0  F  F VF VF  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  84.0  85.0  87.0  88.0  84.0  79.0  75.0  F  F  F VF VF  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  31.3  34.8  33.3  28.8  21.8  14.8  13.4  13.8  U  U  U  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        1.8%        6.7%        4.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.5%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.5%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        0.7%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        2.8%       10.5%        6.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        2.6%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        9.0%        9.7%        9.3%
 70kt / 48h        2.8%        2.4%        2.6%
 65kt / 72h       11.1%       14.4%       12.7%