Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172019 191016 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00     94.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.6  26.6  22.2  17.7  21.5  20.2  20.2  20.2  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  17.0  16.0  16.0  19.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    96.0 139.0 140.0 128.0 118.0 133.0 133.0 133.0  F VF VF  F  F VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  83.0  85.0  86.0  85.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  27.6  26.6  22.2  17.7  21.5  20.2  20.2  20.2  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        5.9%       17.1%       11.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        6.0%        3.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        6.0%        3.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        2.2%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        5.5%       23.0%       14.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.5%        7.9%        4.7%
 55kt / 48h       15.3%       17.8%       16.6%
 70kt / 48h        4.7%        5.2%        5.0%
 65kt / 72h       19.0%       20.0%       19.5%