Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182019 191017 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.20    126.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  19.9  17.8  16.9  20.9  23.6  24.3  25.2  F  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  10.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        132.0 132.0 132.0 132.0 132.0 132.0 134.3 134.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  33.0  12.0  15.0  10.0   1.0 -25.0 -29.0  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  50.0  46.0  42.0  41.0  40.0  39.0  34.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.5  19.9  17.8  16.9  20.9  23.6  24.3  25.2  F  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        4.8%        3.1%
 25kt / 24h        9.6%       32.3%       20.9%
 30kt / 24h        3.9%       17.9%       10.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%       17.9%        9.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%        5.1%        3.3%
 45kt / 36h        3.7%       38.4%       21.0%
 55kt / 36h        2.4%       21.5%       11.9%
 55kt / 48h        4.3%       15.2%        9.8%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        8.1%        4.7%
 65kt / 72h        4.4%       12.4%        8.4%