Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182019 191018 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.80    127.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  16.1  16.1  20.3  24.7  27.3  28.0  27.4  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  11.0  10.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.0 127.0 127.0 127.0 127.0 127.0 127.0 127.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  16.0  13.0  -9.0 -19.0 -45.0 -37.0 -19.0  N  U  U  U  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  47.0  44.0  43.0  40.0  40.0  34.0  31.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.3  16.1  16.1  20.3  24.7  27.3  28.0  27.4  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.5%        8.1%        5.8%
 25kt / 24h       14.8%       38.1%       26.4%
 30kt / 24h        8.3%       23.6%       16.0%
 35kt / 24h        4.9%       23.6%       14.3%
 40kt / 24h        2.2%        8.0%        5.1%
 45kt / 36h        4.6%       37.4%       21.0%
 55kt / 36h        3.5%       21.5%       12.5%
 55kt / 48h        2.1%       11.8%        7.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        6.3%        3.6%
 65kt / 72h        1.8%        8.0%        4.9%