Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182019 191018 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.80    127.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  16.8  19.4  23.8  25.7  26.1  25.7  22.9  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  10.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.0 127.0 127.0 127.0 127.0 127.0 127.0 127.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  13.0   3.0  -9.0 -39.0 -23.0 -13.0 -25.0  N  U  U  U VU VU  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  44.0  44.0  43.0  41.0  34.0  31.0  30.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.1  16.8  19.4  23.8  25.7  26.1  25.7  22.9  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        3.3%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h        5.3%       19.0%       12.1%
 30kt / 24h        2.6%        8.1%        5.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%        8.1%        4.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%        2.7%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        2.2%       17.4%        9.8%
 55kt / 36h        1.2%        6.8%        4.0%
 55kt / 48h        1.6%        6.7%        4.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        2.8%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        1.7%        4.7%        3.2%