Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182019 191018 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.40    126.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.7  18.8  23.4  24.1  23.2  21.8  20.2  18.7  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.0 122.0 119.6 122.0 122.0 122.0 122.0 122.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  16.0   4.0 -41.0 -27.0   6.0 -12.0 -25.0  N  U  U VU VU  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  46.0  44.0  40.0  35.0  32.0  30.0  30.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.7  18.8  23.4  24.1  23.2  21.8  20.2  18.7  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        3.1%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h        3.7%       13.9%        8.8%
 30kt / 24h        2.2%        5.1%        3.7%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%        5.1%        3.6%
 40kt / 24h        2.0%        1.9%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        2.5%       12.7%        7.6%
 55kt / 36h        1.3%        4.2%        2.8%
 55kt / 48h        1.7%        5.8%        3.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        2.1%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        1.5%        3.1%        2.3%