Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182019 191018 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.80    126.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     50.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  25.6  26.4  26.1  24.9  23.8  22.0  23.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.0 124.6 127.0 129.3 127.0 127.0 127.0 127.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  -4.0 -57.0   0.0 -13.0  -9.0 -34.0 -62.0  U  U VU  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  44.0  41.0  36.0  33.0  32.0  32.0  31.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.1  25.6  26.4  26.1  24.9  23.8  22.0  23.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        2.8%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.4%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.4%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%        1.0%        0.8%