Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182019 191019 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.30    126.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.3  25.8  27.6  25.4  24.0  22.9  24.1  26.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   9.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.0 129.3 129.3 130.0 129.3 129.3 129.3 129.3  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -13.0 -39.0 -13.0  -1.0  -1.0 -31.0 -55.0 -64.0  U VU  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  43.0  37.0  34.0  33.0  31.0  30.0  33.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.3  25.8  27.6  25.4  24.0  22.9  24.1  26.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        3.3%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.0%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.6%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        1.0%        0.7%