Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182019 191019 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.40    126.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     54.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  27.6  25.6  22.8  19.7  22.3  25.1  27.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        132.0 132.0 132.0 132.0 132.0 134.3 134.3 134.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -37.0 -11.0 -12.0  -4.0 -35.0 -49.0 -61.0 -68.0 VU  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  37.0  35.0  33.0  32.0  31.0  33.0  36.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  27.5  27.6  25.6  22.8  19.7  22.3  25.1  27.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        2.1%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.5%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%