Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182019 191019 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.50    126.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     40.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.9  23.6  21.2  18.9  22.1  25.1  26.4  26.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  11.0  11.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        132.0 134.3 134.3 134.3 134.3 134.3 134.3 134.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -17.0  -7.0   6.0 -52.0 -70.0 -71.0 -78.0 -65.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   39.0  36.0  34.0  32.0  32.0  34.0  36.0  38.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.9  23.6  21.2  18.9  22.1  25.1  26.4  26.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        3.2%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.3%        1.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.4%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%        1.5%        1.1%