Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP192019 191020 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    104.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.4  21.9  23.0  18.7  13.9  14.0  14.4  14.9  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  24.0  20.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  16.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  34.0  77.0 111.0  77.0  30.0   9.0  14.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  62.0  62.0  60.0  56.0  52.0  52.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  27.4  21.9  23.0  18.7  13.9  14.0  14.4  14.9  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        2.2%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        7.4%       21.1%       14.3%
 30kt / 24h        3.6%        7.2%        5.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.9%        7.2%        4.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.9%        2.8%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        9.2%       35.9%       22.5%
 55kt / 36h        5.3%       16.1%       10.7%
 55kt / 48h       12.5%       19.1%       15.8%
 70kt / 48h        6.4%        9.6%        8.0%
 65kt / 72h       14.0%       20.6%       17.3%