Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP202019 191115 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.80    108.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  19.3  18.3  23.6  28.7  30.0  35.5  42.2  N  N  F  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  21.0  18.0  15.0  14.0  12.0  10.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 132.0 129.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  22.0  44.0  67.0  56.0  29.0  49.0  51.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  58.0  62.0  63.0  65.0  64.0  65.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.5  19.3  18.3  23.6  28.7  30.0  35.5  42.2  N  N  F  N  N  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        2.0%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        4.3%       16.5%       10.4%
 30kt / 24h        1.9%        5.2%        3.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        5.2%        3.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        1.9%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        2.5%       16.7%        9.6%
 55kt / 36h        1.1%        5.1%        3.1%
 55kt / 48h        1.4%        4.4%        2.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%