Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP202019 191115 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    108.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  21.8  27.0  28.5  32.4  36.9  40.6  45.7  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  17.0  14.0  13.0  11.0  10.0   9.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 134.3 132.0 129.6 125.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  37.0  69.0  73.0  43.0  54.0  89.0  49.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  59.0  61.0  62.0  N  U  N  N  N  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.5  21.8  27.0  28.5  32.4  36.9  40.6  45.7  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        2.2%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        3.9%       15.0%        9.4%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        4.6%        3.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        4.6%        2.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        1.6%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        1.4%       13.2%        7.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        3.7%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        2.9%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%