Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP202019 191115 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30    109.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.0  30.6  32.6  38.7  40.0  45.1  52.4  59.4  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  14.0  12.0  10.0   9.0   8.0   8.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 119.3 114.6 112.3 107.9 103.6 105.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  78.0  53.0  55.0  55.0  58.0  37.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  60.0  60.0  58.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  28.0  30.6  32.6  38.7  40.0  45.1  52.4  59.4  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.6%        7.2%        8.4%
 25kt / 24h       12.9%       23.7%       18.3%
 30kt / 24h        7.5%       12.0%        9.8%
 35kt / 24h        5.2%       12.0%        8.6%
 40kt / 24h        4.4%        4.7%        4.6%
 45kt / 36h        2.3%       12.5%        7.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.7%        4.2%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%