Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP202019 191116 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    109.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.8  37.0  38.9  35.5  43.3  52.0  58.1  69.4  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  12.0  10.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   2.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 117.0 114.6 110.1 105.7 103.6 101.5 101.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    79.0  73.0  86.0  69.0  75.0  63.0  77.0  64.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  60.0  57.0  57.0  60.0  62.0  59.0  57.0  U  N  U  U  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  32.8  37.0  38.9  35.5  43.3  52.0  58.1  69.4  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        1.4%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        2.4%        6.9%        4.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        2.2%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        2.2%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        0.8%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.4%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%