Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP202019 191116 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    110.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.1  34.7  36.1  43.9  52.9  63.2  65.1  70.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0   9.0   7.0   6.0   7.0   2.0   1.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        117.0 112.3 107.9 103.6 101.5 101.5  97.4  93.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    68.0  81.0  61.0  73.0  88.0  74.0  38.0  26.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  57.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  59.0  57.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  34.1  34.7  36.1  43.9  52.9  63.2  65.1  70.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.7%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.7%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%