Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP202019 191116 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10    111.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.3  38.7  45.9  54.1  61.3  63.1  69.0  74.9  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0   8.0   5.0   6.0   2.0   1.0   4.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.3 107.9 103.6  99.4  97.4  99.4  91.6  82.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  60.0  60.0  65.0  56.0  55.0  61.0  19.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  59.0  58.0  60.0  60.0  62.0  55.0  52.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  35.3  38.7  45.9  54.1  61.3  63.1  69.0  74.9  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        1.4%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%