Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP202019 191116 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    111.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.4  45.0  46.9  55.9  70.6  77.2  81.0  73.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   5.0   5.0   4.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.9 108.6 104.4 102.4  96.6  91.2  75.0  60.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  64.0  68.0  72.0  66.0  40.0   0.0  32.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  59.0  58.0  57.0  55.0  50.0  44.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  41.4  45.0  46.9  55.9  70.6  77.2  81.0  73.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%