Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP202019 191117 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60    112.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.9  44.0  55.8  65.1  76.9  81.1  74.2  72.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   4.0   4.0   2.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.7 111.5 107.4 103.5  94.4  84.6  66.7  48.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  72.0  72.0  84.0  49.0   8.0  38.0  36.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  55.0  51.0  46.0  44.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  41.9  44.0  55.8  65.1  76.9  81.1  74.2  72.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%