Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP202019 191117 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.40    111.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        48.1  58.7  70.4  75.2  71.3  71.6  71.6  71.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        121.5 117.4 111.6 104.4  91.5  77.9  77.9  77.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    77.0  68.0  58.0  13.0  35.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  59.0  55.0  54.0  47.0  42.0  42.0  42.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  48.1  58.7  70.4  75.2  71.3  71.6  71.6  71.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%