Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP212019 191116 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.20     98.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     38.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.2  14.6  14.7  16.1  18.8  19.0  21.7  24.8  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   9.0   8.0   8.0  10.0  11.0  11.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        118.6 118.6 120.7 122.9 127.3 129.6 132.0 135.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -62.0 -36.0 -11.0   5.0  28.0  48.0  36.0  34.0 VU VU  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  68.0  69.0  66.0  65.0  66.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.2  14.6  14.7  16.1  18.8  19.0  21.7  24.8  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        2.2%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.7%       12.5%        7.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        4.9%        2.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        4.6%        2.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        1.0%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.4%       23.7%       12.5%
 55kt / 36h        1.4%       11.3%        6.3%
 55kt / 48h        3.4%        7.2%        5.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.2%        4.0%        2.6%
 65kt / 72h        1.4%        7.9%        4.7%