Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP212019 191116 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.20     99.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.6  14.9  18.6  19.7  19.2  21.5  23.1  23.5  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0  12.0  11.0   8.0   7.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        116.5 116.5 116.5 114.4 116.5 116.5 116.5 116.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -37.0 -12.0  22.0  14.0  36.0  27.0  32.0  39.0 VU  U  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  65.0  63.0  62.0  63.0  66.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.6  14.9  18.6  19.7  19.2  21.5  23.1  23.5  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        8.1%        4.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.9%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        2.9%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%       13.2%        6.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        5.8%        3.0%
 55kt / 48h        1.3%        3.1%        2.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        2.0%        1.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%        4.2%        2.4%