Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP212019 191116 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.40    101.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.9  16.4  17.3  15.2  17.0  21.2  21.4  22.4  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   8.0   7.0   6.0   6.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        116.5 116.5 116.5 116.5 118.6 118.6 120.7 120.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0  26.0  26.0  43.0  42.0  41.0  33.0  52.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  64.0  60.0  62.0  65.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.9  16.4  17.3  15.2  17.0  21.2  21.4  22.4  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        5.0%        2.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.6%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.2%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        8.5%        4.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        2.8%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h        2.5%        2.4%        2.4%
 70kt / 48h        2.5%        1.4%        1.9%
 65kt / 72h        1.6%        3.3%        2.5%