Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP212019 191117 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.70    102.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     43.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.1  16.4  15.3  16.3  19.9  20.8  21.0  24.1  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   8.0   7.0   7.0   6.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        118.6 118.6 120.7 120.7 120.7 122.9 125.1 125.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  22.0  37.0  41.0  36.0  22.0  37.0  34.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  63.0  61.0  62.0  63.0  65.0  64.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.1  16.4  15.3  16.3  19.9  20.8  21.0  24.1  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        6.9%        3.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        2.1%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        1.8%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        0.5%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%       10.5%        5.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        3.5%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h        2.7%        3.3%        3.0%
 70kt / 48h        1.9%        1.7%        1.8%
 65kt / 72h        1.8%        3.9%        2.9%