Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP212019 191117 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.90    101.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.8  13.5  14.9  19.6  19.5  20.4  24.1  25.9  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  10.0  10.0   9.0   8.0   7.0   6.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.7 125.7 127.9 127.9 130.1 130.1 132.3 134.6  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  35.0  55.0  32.0  16.0  23.0  26.0  46.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  64.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  64.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.8  13.5  14.9  19.6  19.5  20.4  24.1  25.9  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.8%        2.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        6.4%        3.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        1.6%        2.3%        1.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        0.9%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        2.8%        3.3%        3.0%