Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP212019 191117 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.40    102.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.2  13.8  18.6  19.4  20.9  23.2  24.6  25.5  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0  10.0  10.0   9.0   9.0   7.0   7.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.9 127.9 130.1 130.1 132.3 132.3 134.6 137.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  71.0  45.0  22.0  28.0  29.0  33.0  30.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  64.0  65.0  63.0  62.0  63.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.2  13.8  18.6  19.4  20.9  23.2  24.6  25.5  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        7.6%        4.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.0%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.9%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%       11.5%        6.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        3.4%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        3.2%        4.5%        3.8%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        1.8%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        3.1%        5.4%        4.2%