Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP212019 191117 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.00    103.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     49.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.2  18.3  20.2  21.4  22.9  25.2  27.3  28.9  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  11.0   9.0   8.0   7.0   7.0   9.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        132.3 134.6 134.6 137.0 137.0 139.3 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  41.0  17.0  16.0  14.0  22.0  31.0  39.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  65.0  64.0  64.0  66.0  70.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.2  18.3  20.2  21.4  22.9  25.2  27.3  28.9  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%       10.3%        5.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        2.9%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        2.8%        1.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        0.8%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%       14.6%        7.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        4.6%        2.6%
 55kt / 48h        2.7%        5.6%        4.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        2.1%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        2.4%        5.4%        3.9%