Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP212019 191118 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.80    104.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.1  21.4  22.1  23.0  26.3  28.7  31.3  32.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  12.0   9.0   8.0   9.0  10.0  13.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  12.0   8.0   1.0  22.0  29.0  19.0   9.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  65.0  64.0  63.0  65.0  69.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.1  21.4  22.1  23.0  26.3  28.7  31.3  32.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        7.6%        4.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        2.2%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.7%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        0.6%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        9.0%        4.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        2.3%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.8%        3.5%        2.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        1.6%        3.6%        2.6%