Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP212019 191118 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.20    104.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     53.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.6  19.6  21.3  25.0  27.7  28.3  32.6  34.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  11.0  10.0  10.0  11.0  14.0  21.0  28.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  17.0  15.0  21.0  28.0  26.0  16.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  65.0  66.0  68.0  67.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.6  19.6  21.3  25.0  27.7  28.3  32.6  34.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        7.6%        4.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        2.1%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        1.7%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        0.6%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        8.8%        4.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        2.1%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        3.2%        1.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        1.4%        3.2%        2.3%