Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP212019 191118 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.30    105.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     50.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  20.9  25.7  27.1  29.2  31.7  31.1  29.9  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   7.0   7.0   8.0  10.0  13.0  18.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0   0.0  19.0  15.0  14.0  15.0  27.0  28.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  63.0  66.0  66.0  65.0  67.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.8  20.9  25.7  27.1  29.2  31.7  31.1  29.9  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        9.9%        5.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        2.7%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        2.7%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        0.7%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%       11.1%        5.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        3.0%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        4.3%        2.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        4.1%        2.5%