Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO032019 190924 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10     60.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     47.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.7  25.2  23.0  18.1  20.7  20.0  25.4  24.3  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         53.5  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -20.0 -11.0  -6.0 -23.0 -29.0 -17.0 -10.0  -9.0 VU  U  U VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  41.0  40.0  40.0  38.0  37.0  38.0  39.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.7  25.2  23.0  18.1  20.7  20.0  25.4  24.3  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       19.7%        5.0%       12.3%
 25kt / 24h       20.9%       11.8%       16.3%
 30kt / 24h       20.9%        7.6%       14.2%
 35kt / 24h       20.9%        7.6%       14.2%
 40kt / 24h       20.9%        3.1%       12.0%
 45kt / 36h       13.3%        6.4%        9.9%
 55kt / 36h        3.5%        2.6%        3.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.7%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%