Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO042019 191026 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70     70.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     89.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     85.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.2  15.4  14.6  17.7  16.5  16.1  18.2  22.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  29.0  31.0  31.0  30.0  29.0  29.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  92.0  87.3  87.3  89.6  92.0  92.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  35.0   3.0   5.0   0.0 -14.0 -18.0  -4.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  40.0  36.0  39.0  36.0  36.0  38.0  34.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.2  15.4  14.6  17.7  16.5  16.1  18.2  22.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       66.8%       53.0%       59.9%
 25kt / 24h       72.9%       81.3%       77.1%
 30kt / 24h       72.9%       81.3%       77.1%
 35kt / 24h       72.9%       81.3%       77.1%
 40kt / 24h       47.9%       65.7%       56.8%
 45kt / 36h       42.4%       58.7%       50.6%
 55kt / 36h       28.3%       46.8%       37.6%
 55kt / 48h       19.9%       34.2%       27.0%
 70kt / 48h        5.8%       11.7%        8.8%
 65kt / 72h        3.7%        6.6%        5.2%