Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO042019 191026 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70     69.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     67.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.3  13.2  12.7  11.4  12.3  16.8  23.4  24.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  36.0  35.0  32.0  32.0  33.0  33.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         67.0  64.6  67.0  69.3  69.3  69.3  69.3  69.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0   0.0   0.0  -8.0 -17.0 -10.0  11.0 -15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  38.0  37.0  34.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.3  13.2  12.7  11.4  12.3  16.8  23.4  24.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       66.0%       37.1%       51.5%
 25kt / 24h       53.9%       55.9%       54.9%
 30kt / 24h       53.9%       55.9%       54.9%
 35kt / 24h       53.9%       55.9%       54.9%
 40kt / 24h       42.8%       33.5%       38.2%
 45kt / 36h       68.3%       39.8%       54.1%
 55kt / 36h       26.1%       31.3%       28.7%
 55kt / 48h       10.7%        9.1%        9.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%