Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO042019 191027 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50     66.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     79.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.2  16.7  18.4  19.6  20.1  26.1  29.7  30.6  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  35.0  34.0  31.0  28.0  23.0  20.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         29.3  30.0  29.3  29.3  27.0  27.0  27.0  27.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0  -3.0   1.0 -15.0 -27.0  -8.0   5.0  -9.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  39.0  38.0  35.0  33.0  37.0  39.0  38.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.2  16.7  18.4  19.6  20.1  26.1  29.7  30.6  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       16.9%        0.0%        8.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%