Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO042019 191028 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30     64.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     97.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     69.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.4  30.4  28.3  30.8  31.5  27.0  26.4  30.4  U  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  23.0  20.0  18.0  17.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         32.0  29.6  29.6  29.6  29.6  29.6  29.6  29.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -16.0 -15.0   1.0   6.0  -9.0 -30.0 -48.0 -39.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   35.0  37.0  35.0  36.0  34.0  35.0  35.0  38.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  32.4  30.4  28.3  30.8  31.5  27.0  26.4  30.4  U  N  N  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        0.9%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        0.8%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%