Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO042019 191028 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50     64.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     90.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.4  28.4  32.6  30.7  27.4  31.2  32.7  34.7  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  20.0  18.0  16.0  16.0  15.0  15.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         32.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  32.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -22.0   0.0   4.0 -10.0 -33.0 -35.0 -42.0 -25.0 VU  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   39.0  40.0  40.0  41.0  42.0  43.0  43.0  45.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.4  28.4  32.6  30.7  27.4  31.2  32.7  34.7  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        1.0%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        0.8%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%