Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO042019 191029 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30     63.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.7  45.8  46.3  45.7  38.8  34.0  35.6  37.4 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  16.0  15.0  15.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         39.6  42.0  42.0  42.0  39.6  39.6  39.6  39.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -15.0 -32.0 -51.0 -55.0 -39.0 -16.0 -18.0 -13.0  U VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  43.0  46.0  47.0  46.0  46.0  48.0  50.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  42.7  45.8  46.3  45.7  38.8  34.0  35.6  37.4 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%