Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO042019 191030 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20     61.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.6  39.3  42.0  39.5  36.5  33.1  31.7  27.9  U  U VU  U  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  24.0  27.0  27.0  24.0  19.0  16.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         69.6  69.6  69.6  69.6  67.3  69.6  69.6  69.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -22.0 -20.0  -9.0  -5.0 -27.0  -6.0  14.0   3.0 VU VU  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   39.0  39.0  41.0  42.0  41.0  40.0  40.0  42.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  35.6  39.3  42.0  39.5  36.5  33.1  31.7  27.9  U  U VU  U  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%